USD/CAD failed to break through 1.3751 resistance last week and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 1.3751 resistance will suggest that stronger rebound is underway, and target 1.3927 resistance first. Meanwhile, break of 1.3524 support will bring resumption of whole down trend from 1.4791 through 1.3480 low.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, break of 1.3927 resistance will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already.
In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3574) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) could still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction to 38.2% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.4791 at 1.2600.
