USD/CHF dropped through 0.9376 last week to resume the decline from 0.9901. But as a temporary low was formed at 0.9362, initial bias is neutral this week first. Further fall is expected as long as 0.9453 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.9362 will target 100% projection of 0.9901 to 0.9502 from 0.9736 at 0.9337. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 0.9181 low. However, firm break of 0.9453 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9532 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). It could have completed at 0.9181 after hitting 0.9186 key support (2018 low). Break of 0.9901 will extend the rebound from 0.9181 through 1.0023 resistance. After all, medium term range trading will likely continue between 0.9181/1.0237 for some more time.

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In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

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