USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9901 extended to as low as 0.9207 last week and initial bias stays on the downside. Further fall could be seen to 0.9181 low. Sustained break there will extend larger decline to next fibonacci projection level at 0.9081. On the upside, above 0.9260 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9362 support turned resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 low). Current development suggests that such pattern is still extending. Based on current down side momentum, break of 0.9181 will target 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.9081. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 0.8639. On the upside, break of 0.9362 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming too.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
