USD/CHF rebounded strongly last week but couldn’t sustain above 0.9165 resistance so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, sustained break of 0.9165 will argue that corrective pattern from 0.8998 has started the third leg. Further rise should be seen to 0.9304 resistance. Break will target 38.2% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8998 at 0.9343. On the downside, break of 0.9030 will bring retest of 0.8998 low instead.
In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. On resumption, next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. Nevertheless, strong break of 0.9304 resistance will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn focus back to 0.9901 key resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into along term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
