USD/CHF rebounded strongly last week but failed to break through 0.9207 resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.9115 minor support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9207 would be an early sign of bullish reversal and target 0.9304 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 0.9115 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.8982 low instead.
In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. On resumption, next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. Nevertheless, strong break of 0.9304 resistance will be an early sign of trend reversal and turn focus back to 0.9901 key resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into along term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
