USD/CHF’s fall from 0.9471 extended to as low as 0.9002 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for deeper decline. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 0.8756 to 0.9471 at 0.9029 will pave the way to retest 0.8756 low. On the upside, break of 0.9163 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, rejection by 61.8% retracement of 0.9901 to 0.8756 at 0.9464 argues that rebound from 0.8756 was probably just a corrective move. That is, larger down trend from 1.0237 might be still in progress. Medium term bearish is also affirmed as the pair is now far below falling 55 week EMA. Firm break of 0.8756 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.0237 to 0.8756 from 0.9471 at 0.8556 next.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.