USD/CHF edged lower to 0.9165 last week but quickly recovered. Initial bias stays neutral this week first, but outlook remain bearish with 0.9407 resistance intact. Break of 0.9165 will resume whole fall from 1.0146. However, firm break of 0.9407 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8756 (2021 low) has completed at 1.0146, well ahead of 1.0342 long term resistance (2016 high). Based on current downside momentum, fall from 1.0146 should be a medium term down trend itself. Next target is a test on 0.8756 low. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Still, further decline will now be expected as long as 0.9407 resistance holds, in any case.
In the long term picture, long term sideway pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high) is extending and it’s probably in another medium term down leg. Downside will likely be contained by 0.8756 support in case of deeper fall. Overall, range trading should continue until further development.
