USD/CHF edged lower to 0.9058 last week, but quickly rebounded just ahead of 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9355 from 0.9545 at 0.9056. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 0.9287 resistance will confirm short term bottoming. Intraday bias will then be back on the upside for 0.9407 resistance and above. On the downside, however, sustained break of 0.9056 will resume the whole fall from 1.0146 to 100% projection at 0.8754, which is close to 0.8756 long term support.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8756 (2021 low) has completed at 1.0146, well ahead of 1.0342 long term resistance (2016 high). Based on current downside momentum, fall from 1.0146 should be a medium term down trend itself. Next target is a test on 0.8756 low. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Still, further decline will now be expected as long as 0.9407 resistance holds, in any case.
In the long term picture, long term sideway pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high) is extending and it’s probably in another medium term down leg. Downside will likely be contained by 0.8756 support in case of deeper fall. Overall, range trading should continue until further development.
