USD/CHF’s rise from 0.9058 continued last week and hit as high as 0.9411. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474. On the downside, break of 0.9289 resistance turned support is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rally will remain in favor in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0146 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern. As long as 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474 holds, another fall is in favor through 0.9058. However, sustained trading above 0.9474 will indicate that the medium term trend has reversed, and open up further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.9730 and above.
In the long term picture, long term sideway pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high) is extending. Overall, range trading should continue until further development.
