USD/CHF’s decline last week argues that corrective recovery from 0.8818 has completed at 0.9146 already. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9146 resistance holds. Deeper decline could be seen to 0.8818 support and possibly below. But strong support is still needed at around 0.8756 long term support to bring another rebound.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1046 (2022 high) is seen as a leg in the long term range pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high), which might have completed at 0.8818 already, just ahead of 0.8756 long term support. Sustained trading above 0.9058 support turned resistance should confirm medium term bottoming. Further break of 0.9439 resistance will confirm bullish trend reversal.
In the long term picture, long term sideway pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high) is expected to continue between 0.8756/1.0342. However, sustained break of 0.8756 will open up deeper fall back towards 0.7065 (2011 low).
