USD/CHF edged lower to 0.7914 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some more consolidations. But further fall is expected as long as 0.8071 resistance holds. Below 0.7914 will bring retest of 0.7871 low. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.8475 to 0.7871 from 0.8170 at 0.7797.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9200 resistance holds. Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
