USD/CHF’s recovery from 0.7872 extended last week but retreated after hitting 0.7984 minor resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and deeper decline is still in favor. On the downside, below 0.7913 will turn bias to the downside for 0.7872 support, and then 0.7828 low. However, firm break of 0.7984 will suggest that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is extending with another rising leg, and target 0.8075 again.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
