USD/CHF’s fall from 0.8123 accelerated to as low as 0.7877 last week but recovered ahead of 0.7872 support. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Current development suggests that corrective rebound from 0.7828 has completed with three waves up to 0.8123. Break of 0.7872 support will pave the way through 0.7828 to resume the larger down trend. Next near term target is 38.2% projection of 0.9200 to 0.7828 from 0.8123 at 0.7599. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.7997) will mix up the outlook.
In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
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