USD/CHF fell to 0.7923 last week as range trading continued, but recovered since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Overall outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is still extending. On the downside, below 0.7923 will target 0.7877 support. On the upside, though, break of 0.7990 support turned resistance will bring stronger rebound towards 0.8084.
In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
