USD/CHF’s fall from 0.8139 extends lower today but it’s still holding on to 0.8012 resistance turned support. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, above 0.8139 will extend the larger rise from 0.7603 to 100% projection 0.7603 to 0.8041 from 0.7600 at 0.8198 next. However, sustained break of 0.8012 will bring deeper fall to 55 D EMA (now at 0.7949) and below.
In the bigger picture, while a medium term bottom was formed at 0.7603, it’s still early to call for bullish trend reversal. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213 holds, the larger down trend could still continue through 0.7603 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.7603 will argue that the trend has reversed and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation.
