USD/JPY edged higher to 114.69 but retreated just ahead of 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 111.65 from 109.11 at 114.71. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for pull back. But downside should be contained above 112.07 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, firm break of 114.71 will pave the way to 100% projection at 118.18 next.
In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed at 101.18 already. Rise from the 102.58 is seen as the third leg of the up trend from 101.18. Next target is 114.54 resistance and then 118.65 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.11 support hold, even in case of deep pull back.
In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.
