USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY’s steep decline last week confirmed short term topping at 145.06, in bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Initial bias is now on the downside this week for 140.90 resistance turned support. Firm break there will raise the chance that whole rebound from 127.20 has completed. Deeper decline should then be seen to 137.90 resistance turned support for confirmation. On the upside, above 143.54 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 145.06 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Further rally could still be seen as long as 137.90 resistance turned support holds, to retest 151.93. But strong resistance should be seen there to limit upside. However, Break of 137.90 will indicate that the third leg has started back towards 127.20.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

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