USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY’s retreated deeply to 138.05 last week but recovered to extend range trading. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, above 141.93 will resume the rebound from 137.22. More importantly, that would sign that whole rise from 127.20 is still in progress. Further rally should then be seen to 145.06 resistance and above. Nevertheless, on the downside, break of 137.22 will resume the whole decline from 145.06, and carries larger bearish implications.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 151.93 (2022 high) are views as a corrective pattern. Rise from 127.20 the second leg of the pattern and could still be in progress. But even in case of extended rise, strong resistance should be seen from 151.93 to limit upside. Meanwhile, break of 137.22 support should confirm the start of the third leg to 127.20 (2023 low) and below.

In the long term picture, price action from 151.93 is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

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