USD/JPY rebounded strongly last week but upside is capped below 151.69 resistance so far. Consolidation from 151.69 could still extend further. Break of 150.75 will start a falling leg back towards 148.79 support. But overall, as long as 148.79 support holds, larger rise from 127.20 is expected to continue. Decisive break of 151.69 high will resume larger up trend.
In the bigger picture, immediate focus is now on 151.93 resistance (2022 high). Rejection by 151.93, followed by sustained break of 145.06 resistance turned support will argue that rise from 127.20 has completed, and turn outlook bearish for 137.22 support and below. However, sustained break of 151.93 will confirm resumption of long term up trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 151.93 from 127.20 at 157.69. This will remain the favored case as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.
