USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY edged higher to 161.94 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 161.94 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 146.47 to 160.20 from 154.53 at 163.01. Nevertheless, break of 160.25 will turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, long term up trend is still in progress. Further rise is expected as long as 154.53 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 127.20 (2023 low) to 151.89 (2023 high) from 140.25 at 164.94.

In the long term picture, as long as 140.25 support holds, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 172.08.

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