USD/JPY surged sharply to as high as 153.26 last week but retreated from there. Initial bias stays neutral for consolidations, and downside should be contained above 149.95 resistance turned support. Break of 153.26 will target 100% projection of 142.66 to 150.90 from 145.47 at 153.71. Firm break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 158.80. However, decisive break of 149.95 will bring deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 148.22) instead.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. On the downside, break of 145.47 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
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