USD/JPY’s steep pullback last week confirms short term topping at 162.83. Initial bias stays mildly on downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 162.83 at 159.84. Since this level is close to 55 D EMA (now at 160.00), strong support should be seen from there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 161.63 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. Overall, consolidations should continue below 162.83 for a while.
In the bigger picture, rise from 139.87 (2025 low) is seen as another rising leg of the long term up trend. Next target is 61.8% projection of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. For now, outlook will remain bullish as long as 155.01 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resume. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
