• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 31 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Down
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning star
• Time of formation: 25 Aug 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
GBP/USD – 1.3475
Although cable edged higher to 1.3659 last week, the subsequent retreat suggest consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3406) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.3380-82 would limit downside and bring another rise later. A daily close below 1.3325-30 would suggest top is possibly formed, bring weakness to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3217) but a sustained breach below there is needed to add credence to this view, bring further fall to support at 1.3153 which is likely to hold from here.
On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 1.3590-00 and bring another retreat. Above 1.3600 would bring retest of 1.3659 but break there is needed to extend recent rise to 1.3700-10, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3800 and reckon 1.3860 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5018-1.1986) would remain intact, risk from there is seen for a strong retreat to take place later.
Recommendation: Buy again at 1.3250 for 1.3550 with stop below 1.3150.
On the weekly chart, despite rising to 1.3659 last week, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat suggest consolidation would take place and pullback to 1.3400-05 is likely, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3300-10 and renewed buying interest should emerge around the upper Kumo (now at 1.3247) and bring another rise later. Above said resistance at 1.3659 would extend recent erratic rise form 1.1986 low to 1.3750-60 and 1.3800 but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3860 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5018-1.1986) and 1.3900-10 should hold, bring retreat later.
On the downside, although initial pullback to 1.3400-05, then 1.3350 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to the upper Kumo (now at 1.3247) and bring another rise later. Below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3217) would defer and suggest a temporary top is formed, bring retracement of recent rise to 1.3140-50, then towards 1.3100, however, still reckon downside would be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3012) and support at 1.2909 should remain intact, bring another rally later.