• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 7 Mar 2017
• Trend bias: Sideways
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning star
• Time of formation: 9 May 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
USD/CHF – 0.9860
Although the greenback slipped again late last week and fell to 0.9835 (a long position was entered), as this move from 0.9978 is still viewed as retracement of early rise form 0.9735, reckon downside would be limited and bring rebound later, above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.9908) would bring test of resistance at 0.9935 but break there is needed to signal the retreat from 0.9978 has ended, bring test of resistance area at 0.9978-87, a daily close above this level would indicate the fall from 1.0039 has ended at 0.9735 earlier, bring test of indicated resistance at 1.0018, break there would provide confirmation and bring retest of this level first.
On the downside, whilst marginal fall below 0.9835 cannot be ruled out, reckon 0.9795-00 would hold from here, bring rebound later. A daily close below 0.9795-00 would risk retest of said support at 0.9735 but only a drop below this support would shift risk back to downside and signal top has been formed at 1.0039 earlier, bring retracement of recent upmove from 0.9421 to minor support at 0.9670, then 0.9642 (another support) but reckon downside would be limited to 0.9590-00 and support at 0.9565 should remain intact.
Recommendation: Hold long entered at 0.9835 for 1.0035 with stop below 0.9735.
On the weekly chart, although the greenback has retreated again this week after meeting resistance at 0.9978 earlier this month, reckon downside would be limited to 0.9795-00 and mild upside bias remains for another rebound, a break above 0.9978-87 resistance would confirm the pullback from 1.0039 has ended, bring a retest of 1.0039, above there would extend the rise from 0.9421 low to previous resistance at 1.0100-08, having said that, overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond previous resistance at 1.0171 and 1.0200-10 should hold from here.
On the downside, although initial pullback towards 0.9795-00 cannot be ruled out, price should stay well above support at 0.9730-35 and bring another rise later. A weekly close below there would defer and signal top is formed instead, this also suggest first leg of rebound from 0.9737 has ended and bring weakness to 0.9690-00, however, reckon support at 0.9642 would limit downside and price should stay above support at 0.9565 and the greenback shall stage another strong rebound next month.