Although the greenback did find support at 1.2461 in H1 2016 and rebounded, as the move from there still looks corrective in nature, suggesting only wave A of wave iv from 1.4690 (wave iii top) has ended at 1.2461 and the recovery from there is only a wave B, hence upside should be limited to 1.3790-00 and price should falter below 1.4100-10, bring another decline later in wave C of iv. Below 1.3000 would bring test of 1.2820-25 but a sustained breach below 1.2760-65 support is needed to signal C leg of iv is unfolding for another test of said support at 1.2461, below there would extend the fall from 1.4690 for retracement of medium term upmove to 1.2160-70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave iii from 0.9633) but downside should be limited to 1.2000 and support at 1.1920 should hold, bring another rise in late 2017.
On the upside, whilst marginal gain to 1.3790-00 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 1.4000 and resistance at 1.4103 should cap this wave B, bring wave C decline later. A sustained breach above 1.4100-10 would suggest the correction from 1.4690 has possibly ended and bring a stronger rebound to 1.4300 and then 1.4500. Looking ahead, only break of said wave iii top at 1.4690 would confirm upmove has resumed in wave v for headway to 1.4900 and then psychological resistance at 1.5000 but reckon upside would be limited to 1.5410-20 (1.5 times projection of 0.9058-1.3064 measuring from 0.9407).