GBP/JPY – 144.93

Recent wave: Medium term low formed at 120.50 and (A)-(B)-(C) major correction has commenced with (A) leg ended at 148.45, hence wave (B) is unfolding for retreat to 131.00-10.

Trend: Near term up

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Sterling found support at 143.80 and has rebounded again, suggesting further consolidation above previous support at 143.40 would be seen and another bounce to 145.35-40 cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to bring a stronger retracement of the fall from 148.10 to resistance at 145.90-95, having said that, break there is needed to confirm low has been formed, bring further subsequent gain to 146.30-35 but resistance at 147.10 should remain intact.

On the downs8de, below 144.30 would bring weakness to 144.00 but only break of 143.80 support would revive bearishness, bring retest of 143.40. Only a drop below this level would signal the decline from 148.11 top has resumed for correction of early upmove to 143.00, then 142.30-35 which is likely to hold from here.

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.


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