USD/CAD – 1.3469

 
Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway for headway to 1.4700

Trend:  Near term up

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Original strategy       :

Sell at 1.3580, Target: 1.3380, Stop: 1.3640

Position: –

Target:  –

Stop: –

 
New strategy             :

Sell at 1.3580, Target: 1.3380, Stop: 1.3640

Position: –

Target:  –

Stop:-

Although the greenback retreated from last week’s high of 1.3547, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3435-45 and upside risk remains for another rebound to 1.3550 but 1.3575-80 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3770-1.3387) should limit upside and bring another decline, below 1.3435-40 would signal the rebound from 1.3387 has ended, bring retest of this level first. A drop below this support at 1.3387 would extend the fall from 1.3794 top for further weakness to 1.3350, then towards 1.3300 but loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.3250-60.

In view of this, would be prudent to sell on further subsequent recovery as 1.3571-79 (previous support and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3770-1.3387) should limit upside and bring another decline. Above 1.3620-25 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would defer and suggest a temporary low is formed instead, risk a stronger rebound towards resistance at 1.3670.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.

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