EUR/GBP – 0.8685

Recent wave: Major double three (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

Trend: Near term up

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Original strategy  :

Sold at 0.8735, Target: 0.8610, Stop: 0.8775

Position : – Short at 0.8735

Target :  – 0.8610

Stop : – 0.8775

New strategy  :

Hold short entered at 0.8735, Target: 0.8610, Stop: 0.8760

Position : – Short at 0.8735

Target :  – 0.8610

Stop : – 0.8760

As euro has retreated again after meeting resistance at 0.8756, retaining our view that further consolidation below this week’s high at 0.9771 would be seen and mild downside bias remains for another retreat towards indicated support at 0.8655, however, break there is needed to add credence to our view that a temporary top is formed, bring retracement of recent rise to 0.8600-10 later.

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 0.8735. Only above 0.8771 would extend recent rise from 0.8312 low to previous resistance at 0.8788, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8800-10 due to weakening of upward momentum.

Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.


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