EUR/JPY – 123.70

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79

Trend: Near term up

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Although the single currency fell to 122.63 yesterday, as euro has rebounded after holding above previous support at 122.56, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and recovery to 124.10-20 cannot be ruled out, however, break of 124.70-75 is needed to signal the retreat from 125.81 has ended, bring a stronger rebound to 125.00 but resistance at 125.31 should remain intact, bring retreat later.

On the downside, below said support at 56-63 would signal another leg of corrective decline from 125.82 top is underway for retracement of early upmove to 122.00, then towards 121.25-30 but oversold condition should limit downside and reckon latter level would remain intact, bring rebound later.

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).

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