AUD/USD – 0.7554

Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10

Trend: Near term up

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Original strategy :

Bought at 0.7595, Target: 0.7745, Stop: 0.7535

Position: – Long at 0.7595
Target:  – 0.7745
Stop: – 0.7535

New strategy :

Hold long entered at 0.7595, Target: 0.7745, Stop: 0.7535

Position: – Long at 0.7595
Target:  – 0.7745
Stop:- 0.7535

Current retreat has dampened our bullishness and 0.7535 needs to hold to retain prospect of another rise, above 0.7600 would bring test of indicated resistance at 0.7636, break there would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend the rise from 0.7329 towards previous resistance at 0.7680 but loss of momentum should limit upside to chart resistance at 0.7750 and price should falter below 0.7785-90.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 0.7595. Below 0.7535 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, bring correction to 0.7515-20, break there would provide confirmation, then correction to 0.7490-95 and possibly towards support at 0.7457 would be seen later. 

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.


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