GBP/USD – 1.2962


Recent wave: Wave V of larger degree wave (III) has ended at 1.1986 and major correction has commenced from there for gain to 1.3000 and 1.3140-50

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Trend: Near term up


Original strategy :

Sell at 1.3055, Target: 1.2860, Stop: 1.3115

Position: –

Target:  –

Stop: – 

New strategy :

Sell at 1.3055, Target: 1.2860, Stop: 1.3115

Position: –

Target:  –


As cable has remained under pressure after recent selloff from 1.3269 top, reinforcing our bearish view that the fall from 1.3269 top is still in progress and downside bias remains for this move to bring retracement of recent upmove, hence further weakness to previous support at 1.2933 would be seen, break there would extend decline to 1.2890-00 and possibly towards 1.2850-60, however, previous support at 1.2812 would hold from here, bring another rebound later. 

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell cable on subsequent recovery as resistance at 1.3059 should limit upside and bring another decline. Only above previous support at 1.3112 (now resistance) would abort and signal the fall from 1.3269 has ended instead, bring a stronger rebound to indicated resistance at 1.3165 first.

Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable’s rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has ended at 1.7192, the subsequent selloff is the larger degree wave (C) which is still unfolding with minor wave (III) of larger degree wave 3 ended at 1.1986, hence wave (IV) correction is in progress which could either be a triangle wave (IV) of a complex formation but upside should be limited to 1.3500 and price should falter well below 1.4000, bring another decline in wave (V) of 3 for weakness to 1.1500, then 1.1200.


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