AUD/USD – 0.7861

Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10

Trend: Near term up

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Original strategy :

Sell at 0.7915, Target: 0.7675, Stop: 0.7975

Position: –
Target:  –
Stop: –

New strategy :

Stand aside

Position: –
Target:  –
Stop:-

Despite falling to 0.7808 yesterday, the subsequent rebound suggests consolidation above this level would be seen and recovery to 0.7900 cannot be ruled out, however, a sustained breach above resistance at 0.7919 is needed to signal low has been formed there, bring a stronger rebound towards 0.7945-50 but resistance at 0.7980 should cap upside, bring further consolidation later. In the event aussie breaks above 0.8000, this would suggest the pullback from 0.8066 top has ended and bring eventual retest of this level.

On the downside, below said support at 0.7808 would signal the fall from 0.8066 top (wave iii peak) is still in progress and downside risk remains for retracement of early upmove in wave iv to 0.7786 support, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 0.7750 and price should stay above i top at 0.7712, bring rebound later. We are keeping our latest bullish count that recent impulsive waves is unfolding as (1 2, (i)(ii), i ii) and may extend headway towards 0.8150. 

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.

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