USD/CAD – 1.2712
Trend: Near term up
New strategy :
Sell at 1.2770, Target: 1.2570, Stop: 1.2830
As the greenback has recovered after finding good support at 1.2665 last week, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.2750 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.2770 and price should falter well below resistance at 1.2820, bring another decline later, below said support at 1.2665 would extend the fall from 1.2917 top for retracement of recent rise to support at 1.2636 but a drop below this level is needed to signal recent rise has ended at 1.2917, bring further fall to 1.2600 and later towards 1.2550-60.
In view of this, we are looking to sell on further subsequent recovery. Only above resistance at 1.2820 would abort and signal the retreat from 1.2917 has ended at 1.2665 instead, bring a stronger rebound to 1.2870-80 but said resistance at 1.2917 should hold. Looking ahead, as we are still treating this rebound from 1.2061 as wave iv, reckon 1.2975-80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave iii) would limit upside and 1.3000 should hold, bring selloff later in wave v. We are keeping our count that wave v as well as wave (C) ended at 1.3794 and impulsive wave (i ii, i ii) is now unfolding with minor wave iii ended at 1.2414, followed by wave iv correction ended at 1.2778, wave v has reached our indicated downside target at 1.2100 and may extend to 1.2000.
To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.