AUD/USD – 0.7657

Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10

Trend: Near term up

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Original strategy :

Bought at 0.7645, Target: 0.7800, Stop: 0.7605

Position: – Long at 0.7645
Target:  – 0.7800
Stop: – 0.7605

New strategy :

Hold long entered at 0.7645, Target: 0.7800, Stop: 0.7605

Position: – Long at 0.7645
Target:  – 0.7800
Stop:- 0.7605

Although aussie has eased after meeting resistance at 0.7680 and consolidation below this level would be seen, reckon downside would be limited to 0.7630 and bring another rise later, above indicated resistance at 0.7680-85 would signal low is formed there and suggest the retreat from 0.7750 (last week’s high) has ended, then retest of this level would follow, above this resistance would extend gain to 0.7778 (last year’s high), however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and extend headway to 0.7840-50 but price should falter below 0.7900.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 0.7645. Only below 0.7585 would abort and signal top is formed instead, then further choppy trading would take place and risk is seen for pullback to 0.7530-40 but indicated support at 0.7491 should remain intact.

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.


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