EUR/GBP         –  0.8679

EUR/GBP – The major (A)(B)(C)-(X)-(A)(B)(C) correction from 0.9805 is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

As the single currency has finally retreated after rising to 0.8771 earlier this week, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 0.8650, then 0.8600-10 cannot be rule out, however, reckon 0.8570-75 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 0.8771 would signal another leg of corrective rise from 0.8312 low is underway  for gain to 0.8788 resistance, having said that, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon upside would be limited to another previous resistance at 0.8857.

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Our latest preferred count is that the wave V of a 5-wave series from 0.5682 ended at 0.9805 earlier and major from there has possibly ended at 0.8067 as A-B-C-X-A-B-C. We are keeping our view that the entire correction from 0.9805 has possibly ended at 0.7756 and as labeled as the attached daily chart and impulsive move from 0.9084 has ended at 0.7756 as a 5-waver which marked either the (C) wave or the A leg of (C), a daily close above resistance at 0.8831 would suggest (C) leg has ended and headway towards 0.9084.

On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 0.8600-05 cannot be rule out, reckon 0.8565-70 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Below support at 0.8524 would suggest top is possibly formed instead, risk weakness to 0.8500-05 but only break of 0.8455-60 would confirm and suggest the rebound from 0.8312 has ended, bring further fall towards indicated key support at 0.8384.
Recommendation: Buy at 0.8570 for 0.8720 with stop below 0.8500

Euro’s long term uptrend started in Feb 1981 at 0.5039 and is unfolding as a (A)-(B)-(C) move with (A): 0.8433 (Feb 1993), (B): 0.5682 (May 2000) and impulsive wave (C) should have ended at 0.9805 with wave III ended at 0.7254 (May 2003), triangle wave IV at 0.6536 (23 Jan 2007) and wave V as well as wave (C) has ended at 0.9805.

We are keeping an alternate count that only wave III ended at 0.9805 and the correction from there is the wave IV and may extend weakness to 0.7700, however, it is necessary to see a daily close above resistance at 0.9143 would change this to be the preferred count.


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