USD/CHF – 0.9618
As the greenback has retreated after running into resistance at 0.9773 earlier this week, suggesting initial downside risk is for weakness to 0.9600, however, as the strong rebound from 0.9438 to 0.9773 signals a temporary low has possibly been formed at 0.9438, reckon downside would be limited to 0.9540-50 and bring another rebound later. Above 0.9700 would bring another bounce to 0.9773 resistance but break there is needed to add credence to this view and extend the rebound from 0.9438 low for further gain to 0.9845-50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0100-0.9438) but reckon upside would be limited to 0.9890-00 and price should falter well below psychological resistance at 1.0000.
Our preferred count on the daily chart is that early selloff to 0.9630 is an end of the larger degree wave III and major correction is unfolding from there with a leg ended at 1.2298 (Nov 2008 with (a): 1.0625, (b):1.0011 and (c):1.2298), wave b ended at 0.9910 with (a): 1.0370, (b): 1.1967, (c): 0.9910. The rise from there to 1.1730 is the wave c which also marked the end of wave IV and wave V has possibly ended at 0.7068.
On the downside, whilst the pullback from 0.9773 may bring initial weakness to 0.9600, reckon 0.9550-55 would limit downside and bring another rebound to aforesaid upside targets. Only a drop below said recent low at 0.9438 would revive bearishness and signal the erratic decline from 1.0344 top (formed back in late 2016) is still in progress and downside bias remains for this move to extend weakness to 0.9390-00, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9300-10, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place probably later.
Recommendation: Buy at 0.9555 for 0.9755 with stop below 0.9455
Dollar’s long-term downtrend started from 2.9343 (Feb 1995) and it was unfolding as a (A)-(B)-(C) with (A): 1.1100, (B): 1.8310 (26 Oct 2000), then followed by another impulsive wave (C) with wave III ended at 0.9630 (Mar 2008). Under this count, correction in wave IV has possibly ended at 1.1730 and wave V already broke below support at 0.9630 and met indicated downside target at 0.7500 and 0.7400. The reversal from 0.7068 suggests the wave V has possibly ended and the breach of resistance at 0.9595 add credence to this view and indicated upside target at 1.0000 had been met, however, the sharp retreat from 1.0296 to 0.7401 suggests choppy trading would be seen but price should stay above said record low at 0.7068.