USD/CAD – 1.2145

Trend:  Down

Original strategy       :

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Sell at 1.2285, Target: 1.2100, Stop: 1.2345

Position: –

Target:  –

Stop: –

New strategy             :

Sell at 1.2240, Target: 1.2080, Stop: 1.2300

Position: –

Target:  –


As the greenback has recovered after falling to 1.2061, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and gain to 1.2200 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon resistance at 1.2245 would limit upside and bring another decline later, below said support at 1.2061 would signal recent decline is still in progress and may extend further weakness towards psychological support at 1.2000 but loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.1950-60, bring rebound later. We are keeping our count that wave v as well as wave (C) ended at 1.3794 and impulsive wave (i ii, i ii) is now unfolding with minor wave iii ended at 1.2414, followed by wave iv correction ended at 1.2778, wave v has reached our indicated downside target at 1.2100 and may extend to 1.2000.

In view o this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell on recovery as 1.2245 should limit upside. Above 1.2300 would would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 1.2335-40 but only break of resistance at 1.2429 would signal low is formed, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.2490-00.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.


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