EURUSD Outlook

EUR/USD's pullback from 1.2081 extended lower to 1.1764 last week then recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1730) will raise the chance of reversal on rejection by 1.2 psychological level, and target 1.1576 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.1870 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 1.2081. Decisive break above 1.2 will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1458) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1761; (P) 1.1792; (R1) 1.1808; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral again with current recovery. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1731) will raise the chance of reversal on rejection by 1.2 psychological level, and target 1.1576 support. On the upside, above 1.1870 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 1.2081. Decisive break above 1.2 will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1458) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1761; (P) 1.1792; (R1) 1.1808; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD is mildly on the downside with breach of 1.1774 temporary low. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1731) will raise the chance of reversal on rejection by 1.2 psychological level, and target 1.1576 support. On the upside, above 1.1870 minor resistance will bring stronger rebound to retest 1.2081. Decisive break above 1.2 will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1458) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.