The new economic projections are rather hawkish.
Fed projects GDP to grow 2.8% in 2018, revised up from 2.7% in March projection. 2019 and 2020 GDP projections were unchanged at 2.4% and 2.0% respectively.
Unemployment rate is projected to be at 3.6% by the end of 2018, 3.5% In 2019 and 2020. There were clear downward revision from March projection of 3.8% in 208, 3.6% in 2019 and 2020.
Headline PCE projection was raised to 2.1% from 2018 to 2020. That compares to March projection of 1.9% in 2018, 2.0% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2020.
Core PCE projection was raised to 2.0% in 2018 and kept unchanged at 2.1% in 2019 and 2020. March projections predicted 1.9% in 2018, 2.1% in 2019 and 2020.
Most importantly, federal funds rate is projected to be at 2.4% by the end of 2018, revised up from 2.1%. That is, Fed is now leaning towards total of four rate hikes this year. Federal funds rate is projection to be at 3.1% at 2019, that is, around three hikes in 2019. 2020 projection was left unchanged at 3.4%, arguing that it could be close to the neutral rate of policy makers.
Dollar is lifted after the release but traders are probably awaiting press conference before jumping in.
