EUR/AUD spiked higher to 1.6765 last week but pulled back sharply from there. A short term top was formed and initial bias is now on the downside for pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.5919) and possibly below. On the upside, above 1.6205 minor resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6765.
In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high), argues that up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low), is not ready to resume yet. But still, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6587 from 1.3624 at 1.8069. And this will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.
