USD/CHF’s recovery was limited at 1.0098 last week, below 1.0119 resistance. Fall from 1.0237 then resumed through 1.0008. Initial bias is back on the downside this week. Next target is 0.9879 low. On the upside, break of 1.0098 is needed to indicate completion of such decline. Otherwise, outlook will stay mildly bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is losing upside momentum ahead of 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). There is no clear sign of reversal yet. But even in case of another rise, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 0.9879 support will suggest that larger rise from 0.9186 (2018 low) has completed. Deeper fall will be seen to 0.9716 support for confirmation.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
