GBP/USD dipped to as low as 1.2036 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Deeper fall is still expected as long as 1.2432 resistance holds. Below 1.2036 will target a test on 1.1946 low. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view and resume the larger down trend. However, break of 1.2432 will suggest that consolidation pattern from 1.1946 is extending with another rise.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. Current momentum suggests that the down trend will go deeper than originally expected.
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