EUR/GBP’s corrective recovery from 0.8786 extended higher last week. While further rise is still likely, based on current momentum, upside should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 0.8953). On the downside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8472 to 0.9324 at 0.8797 will resume the decline form 0.9324 and target 0.8472 low.
In the bigger picture, the failure to sustain above 0.9305 (2017 high) suggests that consolidation from there is extending. Breach of 0.8472 cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9305 at 0.8400. On the upside, firm break of 0.9327 will confirm up trend resumption.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). As long as 0.8472 support holds, further rise should be seen through 0.9305 to 0.9799 and above down the road.
