EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5354 resumed last week and accelerated to as high as 1.5906. The development suggests that whole decline from 1.6434 has completed at 1.5354 already. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 161.8% projection of 1.5354 to 1.5743 from 1.5446 at 1.6075 next. On the downside, break of 1.5743 resistance turned support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, the strong rebound from 1.5354 invalidates the case of imminent downside breakout, and turn medium term outlook neutral again. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250. Further rally could be seen through 1.6434 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.5446 support will turn focus back to 1.5250 low.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Further decline will remain in favor as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 holds. Break of 1.5250 will target 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733
