USD/CHF’s up trend resumed last week and hit as high as 0.9891. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for next near term target at 261.8% projection of 0.9149 to 0.9459 from 0.9193 at 1.0005 next. On the downside, break of 0.9708 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9471 from 0.9149 at 0.9864 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.0306, which is close to 1.0342 (2016 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9459 resistance turned support holds.
In the long term picture, current development argues that the correction from 1.0342 (2016 high) has completed at 0.8756 (2020 low) already. Rise form 0.7065 (2011 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm and target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 (2000 high) to 0.7065 at 1.1359.
