EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8338 last week, but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While stronger recovery might be seen, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8585 resistance holds. Break of 0.8338 will resume the decline from 0.8720 to retest 0.8201 low.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Medium term bearishness is maintained. Break of 0.8201 will resume larger down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high). Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8697 will affirm the case that rise from 0.8201 is a medium term up trend itself.
In the long term picture, the lack of medium term downside momentum suggests that fall from 0.9499 (2020 high) is merely a correction to rise from 0.6935 (2015 high). In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917 to bring rebound. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 0.8591) will indicate that the correction has completed and bring retest of 0.9499.
