US ADP private employment grew 127k in November, below expectation of 195k. By sector, goods- producing jobs dropped -86k. Service-providing jobs rose 213k. By establishment size, small companies lost -51k jobs. Medium companies added 246k. Large companies lost -68k.
Turning points can be hard to capture in the labor market, but our data suggest that Federal Reserve tightening is having an impact on job creation and pay gains. In addition, companies are no longer in hyper-replacement mode. Fewer people are quitting and the post-pandemic recovery is stabilizing.
