GBP/USD’s decline from 1.3141 resumed last week and hit as low as 1.2443. But as a temporary low was formed there, initial bias remains neutral this week. Some more consolidations could be seen. Recovery should be limited by 1.2618 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Break of 1.2443 will target 100% projection of 1.3141 to 1.2618 from 1.2799 at 1.2276.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3141 medium term top is seen as a correction to up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3141 at 1.2075. Strong support would be seen there to bring rebound on first attempt. But outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3141 resistance holds, and consolidation from there is set to extend, until further development.
In the long term picture, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.2902) will add to the case of long term bullish reversal, and target 1.4248 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.0351 at 1.4480) for confirmation. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 M EMA will maintain long term bearishness for downside resumption at a later stage.
