USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9243 last week, but subsequent pull back and breach of 0.9089 support indicates short term topping. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8551 to 0.9243 at 0.8979. On the upside, though, above 0.9176 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9243.
In the bigger picture, current development indicates that rise from 0.8551 is reversing whole down trend from 1.0146. Further rally would then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.9537 and above. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 0.8962) holds, even in case of deep pullback.
In the long term picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high) has completed. With 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359 intact, outlook is neutral at best.
