EUR/USD turned sideway after edging higher to 1.0755 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 1.0764 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0763) will extend the rise from 1.0447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.0958 next. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0663) will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0447/0515 support zone instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. However, Break of 1.0447 will resume the fall to 61.8% retracement of 0.9543 to 1.1274 at 1.0199.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. But momentum of the rebound argues that it’s merely in a consolidation phase, rather than trend reversal. Range trading is likely between 0.9534/1.2348 for some more time.
 will extend the rise from 1.0447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.0958 next. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0663) will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0447/0515 support zone instead.){kind=link}